Our Research Team is investigating a wide range of data, exploring financial, migration, protest and climate patterns. Certain indicators may follow a typical path — a motif — prior to conflict events (whether inter- or intra-state). Are the variables associated with conflict chaotic and therefore inherently unpredictable? Using novel methods in social sciences, we search for patterns in the observable actions that international leaders and actors take prior to conflict events, as well as in their perceptions. This will be done at multiple levels of resolution—the minute, the month, the year—and using original data on financial assets, news articles, and diplomatic cables.